Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 37.438895 40.573237 44.027539 48.152910 52.994923 58.562005 65.544297
2025-08-17 32.538348 36.514245 41.183394 47.185384 54.877321 64.685675 78.661909
2025-08-24 29.477801 33.833603 39.168459 46.386276 56.256220 69.918349 91.673365
2025-08-31 27.302885 31.861619 37.623558 45.735173 57.427111 74.795537 105.477896
2025-09-07 26.163324 31.019856 37.348450 46.619078 60.735198 83.401151 128.759125
2025-09-14 24.784340 29.713649 36.277863 46.176577 61.887684 88.727918 148.592634
2025-09-21 23.396415 28.275938 34.877313 45.048886 61.712808 91.620220 164.832508
2025-09-28 22.193045 27.001491 33.593388 43.938293 61.359796 94.046967 181.575619
2025-10-05 21.963207 27.039554 34.165001 45.726588 66.229031 108.208135 244.982563
2025-10-12 21.517621 26.736606 34.200031 46.640670 69.675593 120.646052 323.945435
2025-10-19 21.030746 26.338990 34.053202 47.220540 72.575726 133.018694 435.872119
2025-10-26 20.468970 25.797703 33.642560 47.295102 74.464165 143.638084 584.523674
2025-11-02 19.707701 24.953618 32.750717 46.518423 74.614416 150.006893 754.539717
2025-11-09 18.954397 24.089911 31.782400 45.528020 74.173819 154.615418 972.361301
2025-11-16 18.308505 23.357122 30.979106 44.765348 74.128313 160.708955 1366.057056
2025-11-23 17.742249 22.718726 30.290132 44.151270 74.329807 167.981932 2188.636113
2025-11-30 17.503581 22.563290 30.370000 44.982360 78.137977 192.031020 18858.051988
2025-12-07 17.043949 22.048732 29.828626 44.566235 78.778529 203.522053 NaN
2025-12-14 16.494434 21.375451 28.991273 43.505051 77.591122 205.831868 NaN
2025-12-21 15.979016 20.738509 28.188310 42.458836 76.310533 207.234416 NaN
2025-12-28 15.976947 20.897744 28.728772 44.142918 82.742792 257.971301 NaN
2026-01-04 15.829071 20.820303 28.859256 45.002617 87.133717 306.365042 NaN
2026-01-11 15.636484 20.663287 28.841604 45.547601 90.756520 359.322616 NaN